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The Gig Economy Is the New Normal

Employers Want Gray Hair The Gig Economy Is the New Normal A Bull Market in “Help Wanted” Signs Detroit, Hong Kong, Hollywood (Florida), and the Cayman Islandsread more...

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Inspiration from the World of Sports

One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right...

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Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trumpâs Polls

I’m going to offer something a little different in this week’s Outside the Box. Nate Silver has consistently been one of the best political analysts of the past 12 years. I wasn’t terribly enamored of...

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$100 Trillion Up in Smoke

Simple Math, Hard Answers Drowning in Oil Third-Order Effects Coup de Grâce? Cayman Islands and Homeread more...

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The Debate Over Renminbi Policy

Longtime readers know how much I respect and rely on the Gavekal group for thought-provoking research. They have a truly unique organization, one in which even junior analysts can question conventional...

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The Fed Prepares to Dive

Be Careful What You Wish For If Crazy Doesn’t Work, Try Crazier Yellen & the Spirit of Prudent Planning Y2K All Over Again? Go Thou and Do Likewise The Religion of Economicsread more...

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70 Is the New 65

As some of us know far too well, forecasting the future with any precision is extremely difficult. There’s at least one exception to the rule, though. Population trends show themselves decades and even...

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Welcome to the Pale Gray Dot

The Gray Wave On Your Own The Coming Retirement Crisis Lifespan Inequality? Deflationary Future Dallas, Houston, Abu Dhabi, Raleigh, and SICread more...

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Life on the Edge, Continued

Life on the Edge, Continued Final Thoughts from John First Impressions from the Strategic Investment Conferenceread more...

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Hot Summer Economic Weirdness

ECB Spreads the Cash German Banks Hoarding Cash UK Eyes the Brexit Recession Warnings Galore Home for the Summer and Hopefully Cleveland?read more...

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Generational Chaos Ahead

The Fourth Turning Attitudes Are Generational Heroes, Artists, Prophets, & Nomads A Turning Roughly Every 20 Years Guide to the Fourth Turning The Worst Yet to Come Some Final Thoughts on Brexit...

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Bill Gross at His Best

I normally read Bill Gross’s monthly letter the day of or shortly after when it comes out. For whatever reason, I didn’t get around to his early June letter until a few days ago. It has been a few...

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When the Future Becomes Today

When the Future Becomes Today Risky Trinity Addictive Behavior Mixed Debt Signals Is the Fed Shooting Blanks? Losing the Narrative Las Vegas, Maine, NYC, and Montanaread more...

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The Bond Market: Beware of Junkyard Dogs

It should come as no surprise that credit spreads are shrinking between what in theory are risk-free investments and other investments. Retirees and other investors are reaching farther and farther for...

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World Gone Backwards

Globalization on Its Head Low-Tech Boxes Big Ole Jet Airliner Energy Untanked Plastic Doodads Virtual Airports Alaskan Bananas Early in the Game NYC, Montana, Iceland … and a little question for...

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The Globalization Disconnect

There has been a monster debate going on in economic circles as we try to assess the reasons for Brexit/Trump/Sanders and the developed world’s rejection of the directions in which the establishment...

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Weapons of Economic Misdirection

Weapons of Economic Misdirection Hayek Versus Keynes GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History Will the Real GDP Please Stand Up? GDP Is a Political Construction Denver, Denver, Dallas, and Writingread...

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Negative Rates Nail Savers

The Economy Is Rigged The Creature from Jekyll Island Let’s Slap a 50% Tax on Your 401(k)s and Retirement Plans What Will Happen from Here Denver, Dallas, Denver, and Back to Dallasread more...

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Forecasting with Friends

Rosenberg: Return to Disinflation Wood: Inflection Points & Border Taxes BCA: Looming Shifts Enough Forecasts DC, Florida, and the Caymansread more...

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Howard Marks on Expert Opinion

In a week when I have once more gone out on the old limb, in last weekend’s Thoughts from the Frontline, to bring you my forecast for the new year, and when I’m also sharing with readers of my Over My...

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